The spread of infectious diseases is measured by the Ro value, pronounced R-Naught. Ro measures the expected ratio of transmission for each person carrying the disease within an affected community.
Ro is based on average value which helps us understand how fast a disease is spreading within a population — assuming that all other factors of transmission remain unchanged.
“Estimations of the R0 value are often calculated as a function of 3 primary parameters—the duration of contagiousness after a person becomes infected, the likelihood of infection per contact between a susceptible person and an infectious person or vector, and the contact rate—along with additional parameters that can be added to describe more complex cycles of transmission (19).” – CDC
For example, an Ro value of 1 means that a single infected person will infect only one other person. As the next infected person passes the virus to the next person at a 1:1 ratio, the virus will continue to spread linearly and eventually infect the rest of the population.
An Ro value of 0.5 means that if two people have the virus, at least one of those infected hosts will infect someone else.
An Ro value of >1 means that a single person will infect more than one person.
An Ro value <1 could mean that a contagious spread is in regression.
What is the Ro Value of COVID-19?
“Given the wide variation in quoted values for COVID-19’s R0 [38], we consider two cases: R0 = 2.2 and k= 0.54 [36]; and R0 = 4.0, which is in line with the recent estimate of around 3.87, which is based on the initial growth of observed cases and deaths in 11 European countries [30].”
(Source – Proc. R. Soc. A.47620200376)
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